Bezos is not the
problem. The problem is that, because people don’t understand, none of my
knowledge or experience matters. Nobody’s expertise matters. No credentials, or
decades of research, or carefully cultivated credibility matters. Even the well-established
facts don’t matter. All facts and researchers can all be dismissed in an
instant with a sneer and a turn of the back. Because people don’t take time to think,
and they especially don’t want to be reminded that they don’t think.
It’s much easier
to wave a hand and blot out all facts. Shake the head and claim credible media sources
report fake news.
People make a
quick, shallow assessment of a situation, a person or a national issue – and
then fill in the blanks to support their hipshot assessment. This is called
Phase I judgment. Phase I judgment achieves only 33% accuracy, at best. But 95%
of every story we tell ourselves is based on Phase I judgment.
Phase II judgment
happens when someone starts questioning their first impression and starts digging
for more accurate information in a search for the truth. But even when we take
time for a second look and carefully dig out the facts, science has discovered
that we can only achieve – at best – about 67% accuracy in our understanding of
other people and situations, even after we’ve lived with a person for 40 years.
(For a better understanding, of Phase I & II judgments, see No One
Understands You and What to Do About It, by Heidi Grant Halvorson, Associate
Professor of Motivation Science Center, Columbia Business School.)
But our
understanding of each other is worse than that. Because we operate on Phase I
judgment in 95% of our daily doings, and it is only 33% accurate, we just
automatically fill in the rest of the story with information we picked up in a
similar situation. We judge people and situations based on 67% fabricated
information. We make up a story to explain things and to make ourselves
comfortable that there is order in the universe … in the world … in the
country.
Don’t get me
wrong. Telling stories is an ancient survival skill. There is so much going on
in the real world that we construct a vastly simplified mental model of the
world. This mental model becomes second nature: An automatic, unconscious
response to 95% of the day’s doings. The only time we wake up is when something
doesn’t match our mental model. Then, we wake up for about five seconds.
(Scientists measured it.) Most of the time, when we wake up, we only check to
see if there is an immediate threat. Then, we go back to default mode, dismiss
the new situation, and go back to unconscious autopilot. This all happens in
about five seconds. If you’re not paying attention, you’ll miss it. And we miss
it frequently.
Scientists call
the process we use to build stories “motivated reasoning.” People get a
feeling, make up a story to support that feeling, and then watch for facts to
support their story. It’s a very human tendency that we apply to all kinds of
facts about the environment, god, economic history, and current events. We make
up stories about each other, and the story is only one-third accurate … at best.
But we live by our stories. (See the book, The Truth About Denial, by Adrian
Bardon, Professor at Wake Forest University.)
All of this is to
say that, it behooves us to be constantly aware of our own fragility. To
realize that we don’t really understand … ever. That others don’t understand us
… ever. And with that realization, we need to try to enter Phase II judgment –
to think twice, so we can begin to approach halfway understanding. Then we can
be more patient, more tolerant, more curious about what’s really going on, and
take time to listen carefully, ask questions, and maybe learn something. It
could change the world.
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